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Inside The Numbers on 77 WABC Radio
On tonights show we discuss the #Elite8 and #MLB
Make sure to tune in Live from 6-7
Have a great day!
Danny B
Inside The Numbers on 77 WABC Radio
Hey my friends make sure to tune in tonight to 77 WABC Radio New York City…
You can download the App if your not in the NY area and Listen Live every Saturday Night from 6-7 EST
Tonight we discuss The NCAA Tournament and give out several on air selections….
Have a Great Day… Danny B
Inside The Numbers With Danny B
Our podcast is now available 5 days a week M-F at 2 EST..
Each day Nate Rawlings and I share selections from MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAA and more.. We also feature great guests that share their insights and plays...
We will also be featuring a live video feed in the upcoming weeks...
Visit my new site... www.DannyBSportsNetwork.com
Good Luck... Danny B
New Website: Danny B Sports Network
I wanted to let everyone know that we just launched a new site www.DannyBsportsnetwork.com
You can still access the site via www.DBwins.com ... This current site www.DannyBiancullo.com will still stay active for mostly personal use...
We are currently doing a podcast Monday - Friday that can be found on my websites, iTunes, Stitcher and Libsyn Radio...
Within a week or so the show will be done using a live feed...
Each day we will release on air plays and hear from various guests Coast to Coast...
Good Luck... Danny B
The Mets Are for Real, and They’re Going to Stay that Way (By: Jake Reagan)
Time to play “Two Truths and a Lie;” the New York Mets are on fire right now, the Mets will continue to be one of the best teams in the league, the Mets will regress and this sample size is too small. Clearly, how hot the Mets are right now is no lie. They are 11-2 heading into Sunday and have won a whopping nine straight ball games. The preseason chatter surrounding the Mets since their 2015 World Series run has consistently been centered around the elite rotation in Queens. The season that sparked that narrative saw Noah Syndergaard’s rookie campaign, year two of the Dark Knight’s dominance, and an All-Star performance by 2014 Rookie of the Year, Jacob DeGrom. The conversation about that pitching staff has not just been how dominant they are, even with Harvey’s struggles, but how massively important pitching health is to the team’s success. This prediction manifested itself in the results of the 2017 season. New York finished with a very disappointing 70-92 record, behind the still-rebuilding Braves. The Mets DL saw 9 different pitchers by late July. Harvey, Syndergaard, closer Juerys Familia, Steven Matz and Robert Gsellman all appeared on that list. Jacob DeGrom was the only pitcher on the entire staff to go over 200 innings, finishing with 201.1, which was 82.2 innings more than the second-most innings thrown.
The Mets didn’t make any changes to their core pitching talent this offseason, and their only “big” on-field additions were bringing back RF Jay Bruce, and picking up veteran 1B Adrian Gonzalez who had been released by the Atlanta Braves via the Dodgers. The team also added right-handed hurler Anthony Swarzak, who has already found himself on the DL with an oblique strain. The biggest addition, it could turn out, is new manager Mickey Callaway. Callaway was a below-average ball player, but established himself as an elite pitching mind by working as the pitching coach for the Cleveland Indians. So far this season, Callaway has repeatedly shuffled the deck both in the bullpen, and in the lineup. On Sunday, the Mets had only five positions players qualified for the batting title; 16 positions players have seen at-bats so far this season. Astonishingly, 14 Mets have also appeared on the mound thus far. The work has been distributed very evenly for the Mets pitching. The starters have accounted for 70 innings, the bullpen 50; that means, of the 120 innings thrown by Mets pitchers, about 58% has been thrown by starters, 5% less than in 2017. Starters are averaging only 5.1 innings per start, hardly even enough to qualify for a win.
After reading all of this, the question is, “so what?” Bullpenning, as it’s come to be known, is commonplace in the MLB now, what’s so special about the Mets? The special part about what the Mets are doing, is when they are doing it, and how well. Bullpenning really shines and receives the most credit for success in the Postseason. In Game 2 of the 2017 World Series, the Astros used five pitchers and the Dodgers used an astonishing nine different guys to finish the game. The Mets, however, are bullpenning from the beginning, and they’re doing it correctly. Not only is this strategy good in the context of a game, but it will keep pitchers healthier in the long run. Callaway has been putting relievers in situations where they are set to succeed. The team has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, both are second in the majors as of Sunday. Seven out of the nine arms in the bullpen have ERAs of 3.00 or lower, five of those pitchers have WHIPs under 1.00.
The Mets are running nine-deep in the pen, and are not afraid to use all the pitchers out there. The innings have been very evenly distributed, keeping stress off the bullpen as well as the starters. The hyper-effectivity of the bullpen has defeated the strategy of wearing down the elite starters that the Mets have, forcing opposing hitters to deal with Syndergaard and DeGrom more often. The entire staff has become the strength of the team, not just the starting rotation.
Because of this newfound strength, the Mets can lean heavily on their pitching, which is good, considering the team’s offensive production. The pitching of this squad is reminiscent of the lockdown bullpen, and tremendous starting performances of 2015. Unfortunately, the offense is very much like the 2015 team, as well. In late July of ‘15, the Mets offense was worse than the 1962 Mets, a team that lost a staggering 120 games. The ’15 Mets averaged just 3.43 runs a game at that point, the ’62 Mets were just above them with 3.86 RPG. However, the good news for the ’18 Mets, is that heading into Sunday, they are scoring 4.77 RPG, good for 12th in the majors. The offense of the Mets is still top heavy, Asdrubel Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes have more hits than the rest of the team combined, but the team is at least not as abysmal as the ’15 offense.
The Mets remaining as one of the best teams in baseball, seems to be the second truth. This team is hitting at a better clip than a team that went to the World Series, the same starters line up in the rotation, the bullpen is shortening games and most importantly, the team is being managed into spots where players are best aligned to succeed, and stay healthy. Not only are the Mets better than expected, the Mets could win the division… or the World Series.
Weekend Wrap Up (By: Jake Reagan)
Welcome back to Weekend Wrap-up & Week Ahead. The weather played as much of a factor as the teams did this weekend, let’s jump right in…
Wrap-up:
The biggest story of the weekend was clearly Big Sexy. Bartolo Colon took the mound for the Rangers on Sunday Night Baseball and was perfect through seven innings against the defending world champion Astros. Colon’s perfect game was broken up in the 8th when he walked his first batter. Justin Verlander was excellent, just like his counterpart. He went eight strong innings, allowing only one earned run, which was a homerun. Verlander also struck out 11. The Rangers ultimately came away victorious in the 10th inning, 3-1.
The Mets stayed red hot, walking off 3-2, against the Brewers in New York on Sunday. The Mets have now won an astonishing nine games in a row heading into Monday. Noah Syndergaard was stellar through 5.1 innings, striking out 11 and allowing only 2 hits. Syndergaard struck out eight consecutive hitters.
On Saturday, the Cubs and Braves played a wild one in miserable windy and wet weather in Chicago. The Cubs came away with a 14-10 victory even though they were at one point down by eight runs. Braves 2B Ozzie Albies had a day, going 3-5 with four RBIs. A total of 11 pitchers were used in this crazy April matchup.
Week Ahead:
On Tuesday, the streaking Boston Red Sox will escape the blustery Northeast and head to Anaheim to take on the Angels, with Shohei Ohtani toeing the rubber. Ohtani was scheduled to pitch this weekend against Kansas City, however weather delayed that game. David Price will be opposing Ohtani. Against the current Angels roster, Price has a .203 BAA over the course of 133 ABs. However, the aging Albert Pujols has a career .429 BA against Price over the course of 21 ABs.
On Thursday, the Phillies and Pirates renew the Pennsylvania rivalry. At the outset of the year, very few would have had this series circled. But, that was before the Phillies swept two straight series, and the Pirates were holding the top spot in the NL Central. Neither club has released their projected starter yet, but a matchup of Hoskins and Kingery versus a surging Gregory Polanco and Corey Dickerson, should make for a good offensive show in Citizens Bank Park.
Heading into the weekend, the Nationals and Dodgers, both underperforming but expected to win their respective division, meet in LA. Neither team has released their probable starters for the series yet, but if all lines up as expected, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg could be the matchup in game one. This series could shed some light on if either, or both of these clubs are in real trouble this early in the season.
This has been the Weekend Wrap-up & Week Ahead. It may be Monday, but at least there’s another week of baseball ahead.
The Good, The Bad, and The Downright Strange: A look back at an eventful opening week in Baseball (By Jake Reagan)
It’s just over a week into the MLB season so naturally, it’s time for overreactions because it’s still cold, snowing and March Madness is over so what else is there to do? Through the first week, there has been oddities, as there always are in baseball. A bald eagle landed on a Canadian pitcher, Gabe Kapler seems like he’s brand new to the sport, and Edwin Encarnacion rumbled to an inside-the-park homer sans parrot; who knows what could happen during the rest of this year.
As unpredictable as the season can be, there are a few outcomes that seem more like eventualities. The Dodgers and Astros will win the West, the Central will belong to the Indians and Cubs, and the NL East will be conquered by the Nationals. What’s not so certain, is which teams will slot into the remaining two Wild Card spots. It’s not much of a reach to say that the second-place finisher between the Red Sox and Yankees for the AL East will claim a spot; there is just too much offensive and pitching firepower for it not to happen. After that, who knows?
While the AL Wild Card race seems to be for only one spot, the NL is completely wide open with a large field vying for a bid. Last year’s winners, the Rockies and Diamondbacks, look hungry for another run. The NL Central looks like an absolute gauntlet and the NL East might just sneak up on everyone. Some of these teams have known superstars like Arenado, Goldschmidt and Syndergaard, but it will be the lesser known guys who will have to make the difference.
In the AL, there only two potential Wild Card teams after the Red Sox/Yankees runoff; those teams are the Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels.
The Twins seem like the best kept secret in baseball. Somehow, guys like Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano have stayed out of the brightest limelight to this point in their careers. Minnesota garnered attention this offseason by being one of the busiest teams of the winter. They collected Jake Odorizzi from Tampa Bay, signed former Card Lance Lynn, and signed Logan Morrison for a price so low that my super bargain shopping mother would’ve be impressed. The Twins are top five in the AL in run differential at the moment, which should shock no one as they led the league post -All-Star break in the category during 2017. Long story short, the Twins can score. Their issue last year was their lack of elite pitching talent. Ervin Santana was their go-to ace as he hurled a career year. Depending on another phenomenal season from an aging veteran is not a recipe for success; the Twins need 23-year-old Jose Berrios to take over and become the true ace in Minnesota. Performances like his complete game shutout of the Orioles on April 1st need to become routine if the Twins want another shot at an AL East team in the Wild Card.
The Angels certainly have solidified themselves as a squad with star-power. Mike Trout is the second coming of Mickey Mantle, Albert Pujols is the Godfather of hitting the ever-loving crap out of the ball, and Shohei Ohtani can apparently just do whatever the hell he wants on a diamond. LA has scored the second most runs in the MLB through their first eight games and offense should continue to be a strong suit for the team throughout the year. Anderlton Simmons and Kole Calhoun headline the exceptional defense the Angels have behind their starting staff, but therein lies the issue: the starting staff. If the Angels, like the Twins, want to make a run into the Wild Card, they need a consistent starting rotation, something they have been completely unable to compose the past couple of years. So, the player that the Angels need most to preform, does not yet play for them. The team has only played eight games and Blake Parker, a member of their starting five, has already gone down for the year. Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and John Lackey are all still on the free agent market, but a pitching savior doesn’t seem to be obvious for the Angels.
Heading to the NL East, the key player for the Mets is shockingly not a certain pitcher named Matt Harvey; clearly, the ball club can succeed despite the Dark Knight. Brandon Nimmo will be the man to watch in Queens. The outfielder is so valued by the organization, that the team rejected a trade for Andrew McCutchen which involved shipping Nimmo to Pittsburgh. Brandon will slot in as the Mets fourth outfielder behind Cespedes, Conforto and Bruce; three pieces which drive the New York offense. Nimmo needs to make sure the offense doesn’t sputter without one of the three starting outfielders in the lineup.
For the Phillies, Maikel Franco and his bat must play a major role in games if the upstart, ahead-of-schedule club has any hope of sneaking into a Wild Card spot. Prior to the home run barrage of Rhys Hoskins last year, and the market-shaking deal of Scott Kingery in March, Franco was viewed as the future of the organization. He slashed .255/.306/.427 with 25 home runs and 88 RBI in 2016, his first full season. It should be noted that the Phillies lost 91 games that year. Due to the extremely young core around him, Maikel has become a young veteran in only his third full season with the team. His bat and attitude need to be a rallying point, his abuse of the baseball and of Marlins pitchers over this weekend’s series, is a great place to start.
In the NL West, the Diamondbacks and Rockies (especially the Diamondbacks who are 6-2 currently), may scare a lot of the folks that picked the Dodgers to run away with the division. Both showed that they were playoff caliber last year, winning 93 and 87 games, respectively. The teams both did a good job retaining the core which led them into October. Archie Bradley of the D-Backs, who famously belted a two-run triple in the Wild Card game last year against the Rockies, will be an impact arm out of the Arizona pen. Last season, in his first year out of the rotation, Bradley had miniscule ERA of 1.73 in 73 innings. He posted a 1.04 WHIP and 25 holds. Bradley’s ability to shorten games will be valuable for the D-Backs, especially down the stretch of the playoff run.
Continuing the pitching theme, Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee are the impact players for the Rockies. All three are veteran arms who have experience in high-leverage situations. There is not much analysis required to figure out that Coors Field wears down arms and jacks up ERAs. These three dudes need to shorten ball games when the Rockies have the lead to save the Colorado staff as much as they can.
To the deepest division in baseball, the NL Central. The Cubs should take the division with all their talent and Postseason experience. But, behind them are the new-look Brewers, the tradition-laden Cards and the all-but-forgotten Pirates. The Brewers had a busy offseason, making big splashes by roping in Lorenzo Cain to patrol centerfield, and acquiring Christian Yelich during the Marlins sell-off. Johnathan Villar, their infield utility man, will be an important piece for the Brew Crew. Villar had a down year in 2017, but hit in the mid-.280s during 2015 and ’16. He put 19 balls over the fence in 2016 and 11 in ’17. If Villar can give the team that kind of pop, play three different positions, and replicate the OBP he had in ’16 (.457), he will be an absolute terror off the bench. Oh, and by the way, he’s swiped 85 bags in the past two seasons.
Paul DeJong inked a deal this offseason which will keep him a Cardinal until at least 2025. He finished second in the 2017 Rookie of the Year voting. He also is one of the lesser known shortstops in a league filled with Lindors, Correas and Machados. DeJong had an OPS of .857 last year and has shown through the first week of this season that 2017 was no fluke. He has an OPS over 1.000 so far and 3 of his first 10 hits have been dingers. DeJong will be an All-Star and household name by October; because of that, the Cards will be in the heat of the playoff chase.
Last, and contrary to popular belief, not least, the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucs have been given the worst odds of any team on this list to win the National League, and worst to win the World Series. A 6-1 record out of the gate won’t win any rings, but it’s sure fun to talk about. If Pittsburgh makes the playoffs, or even make a push, it’ll be because of Gregory Polanco. Most of the sport decided that the Pirates wouldn’t be worth watching once they traded Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen this offseason. Polanco’s performance so far in 2018 may be cause for some more eyes on the Bucs. Though it’s only been a week, Polanco has crushed the ball. He holds a slugging percentage of .680 and an astonishing OPS of 1.121. Two home runs, four doubles and one single have come off his bat so far, netting a league leading 11 RBI. The Bucs core is young, and their stars may play for other teams now but Josh Harrison and Starling Marte still share the field in Pittsburgh, along with a young and very electric starting staff. Behind Polanco’s bat, the Pirates may be the surprise club of 2018.
ODDS TO WIN THE AL MVP
11/15/2018 - 2018 AL MVP - Odds to Win
Mike Trout8-4In Progress
Jose Altuve8-1In Progress
Giancarlo Stanton8-1In Progress
Francisco Lindor8-1In Progress
Carlos Correa12-1In Progress
Mookie Betts18-1In Progress
Aaron Judge18-1In Progress
JD Martinez20-1In Progress
Jose Ramirez20-1In Progress
Gary Sanchez25-1In Progress
Josh Donaldson25-1In Progress
Manny Machado25-1In Progress
George Springer30-1In Progress
Chris Sale40-1In Progress
Greg Bird40-1In Progress
Edwin Encarnacion40-1In Progress
Brian Dozier50-1In Progress
Robinson Cano50-1In Progress
Jonathan Schoop50-1In Progress
Nelson Cruz60-1In Progress
Khris Davis65-1In Progress
Miguel Cabrera65-1In Progress
Matt Olson80-1In Progress
Justin Upton80-1In Progress
Andrew Bennintendi80-1In Progress
Byron Buxton80-1In Progress
Miguel Sano80-1In Progress
Jose Abreu80-1In Progress
Good Luck... Danny B
Weekend Wrap-up | Week Ahead (By Jake Reagan)
Welcome to the First Edition of Weekend Wrap-up & Week Ahead. In this weekly article, there will be a quick peak back at the weekend’s most notable action, and a look forward towards the games during the work week. Enjoy!
Wrap-up:
The Houston Astros defeated the San Diego Padres 1-0 on the least heroic walk-off hit possible. Alex Bregman came to the plate with a runner on second in the bottom of the 10th with two outs; he promptly shot a ball straight up in the air. The ball miraculously dropped between the first baseman Eric Hosmer and bullpen arm Robbie Erlin as the winning run crossed home. Lost in the weirdness, was a masterful first start with the Astros by Gerrit Cole. He threw 7 strong innings, punching out 11 and only allowing 5 baserunners.
On Sunday, Jamison Taillon and Gregory Polanco continued to make the Pittsburgh Pirates look dangerous. Taillon threw possibly the best game of his career, a complete game shut-out. He punched out 7 Reds, walked 2, and allowed only a single hit which was quickly wiped off by a double play. Gregory Polanco looks as if he may be taking over the star role once held by Andrew McCutchen. He launched another homerun, good for 2 RBI and his third dinger of the year.
In the final game of the weekend, the Mets topped the Nationals 6-5 in 12 innings. Bryce Harper continues to mash the baseball, hitting his 6th homerun, which leads the Majors. Adrian Gonzalez of the Mets showed that there’s still life in his bat, smacking a grand slam. It was a back and forth contest but Yoenis Cespedes’ broken bat single in the top of the 12th completed the Mets first sweep of the Nationals since 2015.
Week Ahead:
On Monday, the Atlanta Braves, led by ace Julio Tehran, travel to Washington (-245) to face off against the National and Steven Strasburg. The Braves have been a surprise this year, currently with a 6-3 record and the best run differential in the Majors. Strasburg has electric stuff and was masterful in his first start against Cincinnati, but allowed 5 earned runs in his last time out, against the Mets. Will Strasburg turn in another elite performance as the Nats try and bounce back from an extra inning loss to New York, or will the Braves offense keep rolling?
On Thursday, the Cubs host the Pirates in Wrigley. Chicago will send Kyle Hendricks to the hill to face off against Trevor Williams. The Pirates have been a surprising team thus far, carrying a 7-2 record. The talent-laden Cubs, on the other hand, are only 5-4. Williams has been lights out to start the year. He is 2-0 with a microscopic 1.59 ERA in 11.1 innings. Hendricks, like the Cubs, has struggled. He has a 4.09 ERA in 11 innings; he’s also allowed 13 hits and 4 walks, bringing his WHIP up to 1.55.
On Saturday, the Phillies will play game two of a three game set against the hapless Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have managed to win only one game heading into the week, and it was on Opening Day. The Phillies took a series from the Marlins over the weekend, scoring 20 runs in the second game. This matchup will feature Chris Archer and Jake Arrieta, two established aces who are fiery on the mound and have power stuff. Arrieta, in his first start with the club, went only 5 innings before Phillies manager Gabe Kapler pulled him. Archer has been fanning hitters so far, striking out 18 in only 14.1 innings of work. However, he’s also allowed quite a few runs, saddling him a 5.65 ERA.
This has been the Weekend Wrap-up & Week Ahead. It may be Monday, but at least there’s another week of baseball ahead.
Early Odds To Win 2019 Men's NCAA Hoop Title
4/8/2018 - 2019 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament - Odds to Win
Duke6-1In Progress
Villanova8-1In Progress
Kentucky10-1In Progress
Kansas10-1In Progress
North Carolina15-1In Progress
Michigan St18-1In Progress
Virginia18-1In Progress
Gonzaga18-1In Progress
Michigan20-1In Progress
Oregon25-1In Progress
UCLA35-1In Progress
West Virginia35-1In Progress
Auburn35-1In Progress
Texas Tech50-1In Progress
Florida50-1In Progress
Purdue50-1In Progress
Wichita St50-1In Progress
Tennessee50-1In Progress
Nevada60-1In Progress
Miami FL70-1In Progress
Cincinnati70-1In Progress
Maryland70-1In Progress
NC State70-1In Progress
Clemson70-1In Progress
Ohio St70-1In Progress
Vanderbilt70-1In Progress
Arizona St70-1In Progress
Seton Hall90-1In Progress
Virginia Tech90-1In Progress
Good Luck... Danny B
Updated Odds To Win The AL
11/1/2018 - 2018 American League Pennant - Odds to Win
Houston Astros260-100In Progress
New York Yankees10-4In Progress
Cleveland Indians16-4In Progress
Boston Red Sox5-1In Progress
Los Angeles Angels10-1In Progress
Minnesota Twins15-1In Progress
Seattle Mariners30-1In Progress
Toronto Blue Jays30-1In Progress
Chicago White Sox70-1In Progress
Oakland Athletics70-1In Progress
Baltimore Orioles100-1In Progress
Texas Rangers100-1In Progress
Tampa Bay Rays125-1In Progress
Detroit Tigers250-1In Progress
Kansas City Royals250-1In Progress
Good Luck... Danny B
9 Players Who Will Shape the 2018 Season - By: Jake Reagan
The 2018 MLB season has a chance to be the most exciting one in a while. There are several “super-teams” sprinkled across divisions, evidently taking a cue from the NBA, top prospects were just putting on laser shows in Spring Training and there are demigods like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw who have forced the talking heads of the sport to attach the prefix of “possibly the greatest _____ of all time” with such regularity that it seems completely foreign that anyone every called them mister.
What may be more enthralling than these typical headlines, is that the future of the sport is here. This season, there is a group of players which will shape the narrative of baseball for years to come, and become the next generation. If free agency this offseason had one important lesson to teach, it’s that the “way things were always done,” is from here on, no longer the way. So, here are nine players to get excited about as they mold the future of the game, this year.
Shohei Ohtani is the painfully clear choice for the first member of this list. Not only is Ohtani listed as the number one prospect by MLB Pipeline, he is also only 23 years old and will be a starter for the Los Angeles Angels this year. Oh, what’s that? Where will he be starting? Excellent question; shocked it needs to be asked but glad it was. Ohtani received so much attention not just because he can do this (take the twenty-two minutes and forty-six seconds to watch, it’s worth it), but also because he will be pitching and hitting for his club after spending no time in the American minors. When, and if, Ohtani will be serving as a DH and/or outfielder between his pitching outings is yet to be determined.
The implications here clearly impact the future of the game; is it possible for a player to pitch and hit if his name isn’t Babe Ruth? There is absolutely no question that the kid has the talent to do whatever he wants on a diamond. His performance this year will indicate whether he can do everything he wants, all at the same time.
J.T. Realmuto might be the happiest he’s ever been to have a mask to hide behind, this year. The lone major league talent left on what barely can still be called the Miami Marlins, other than Justin Bour, is an absolute stud at the plate and he is only 27 years old. Nostradamus might predict J.T. won’t finish the year in South Florida due to the offseason Exodus of any player worth watching and his repeated pleas to be traded.
In 2017, Realmuto finished behind perennial All-Star, Buster Posey, in batting average for catchers. J.T. hit .278 with a .332 OBP, and a slugging percentage of .451, both finished third in the MLB, behind only Posey and Gary Sanchez. Not to mention, he smacked 17 home runs while playing home games in the mammoth that is Marlins Park. Here’s the last number in this section so this doesn’t sound like too much like an article written by math geek. Realmuto’s WAR was 3.6, good for fourth in the league amongst catchers, and an entire win better than his 2016 WAR. This guy is primed for a breakout year, and will do so in a much more public eye after he escapes Jeter’s 2nd Layer of Hell.
Cody Bellinger won over the hearts and minds of baseball fans everywhere. Going from the Little League World Series, to the Major League World Series is a sure way to get a Tom Rinaldi-esque story complete with video montages and jangly guitar music that tugs at the heart strings. Cody decided to add 39 bombs in only 132 games to his story. Along with a WAR of 4.2, and an NL Rookie of the Year award to go with his NL Pennant, he’s also only 22 years old. This kid is part of the somewhat infuriating youth and depth movement of the Los Angeles Dodgers. These smart SOB’s (sorry mom) have figured out how to harbor greatness like Kershaw and Jansen, while churning out young talent at the same time. Lots and lots of cash might have something to do with it.
Little convincing needs to be done as to why Bellinger is great and fun to watch, but the reason he’ll be interesting this year is, that he will either stamp his ticket to be on the first choo-choo train of future MLB superstars, or his Postseason performance of .219/.254/.453 in 67 plate appearances will loom over him in the 2018 season. Recent history has shown us that the Dodgers don’t care much what the name on the back of the jersey says if there’s no production (sorry A-Gon).
Why in the world is a guy like Scott Kingery on this list? Before this year, he’s yet to be on the field in the Big Leagues for a single out! Well, there are 6 (possibly 9) years and 24 (possibly 66) million reasons why. Mr. Kingery went ahead and inked the dotted line with the Phillies with just about a week left in Spring Training. Obviously, this was just a move to insure his spot on the Opening Day roster because the kid just loves to ball, right?
Wrong.
Kingery may well be the model for years to come in the contract world. Sure, he blew evaluators away this spring, and only spent three months with the AAA Ironpigs (‘sup Lehigh Valley) because he’s so stinking good at this sport, but that wasn’t completely what earned him the fancy piece of paper that will make sure his family never has to work again.
Scott is incredibly talented, and the Phillies recognized that. So, they locked him up, taking away what used to be incredibly valuable free agent years, that, until this last offseason, was the promised land for many players. Many agents are very concerned that teams will use the anxiety amongst players, that was generated by the abysmal free agent market this year, to get deals like Kingery’s done. Well, they may just be right. If Kingery, in his super utility Benny Zobrist role, crushes it, or even is a suitable piece of a still-rebuilding Phillies squad, he could be the poster boy for the new normal, which wouldn’t be so bad. Just look at that smile.
Kris Bryant is hitting at career average of .288 with an OPS of .915. His career WAR is 19.7 in just three seasons and he’s 26 for goodness sake. He’s had two MVP caliber seasons in a row. If any more evidence as to why this kid is the future of the game is needed, more education on what being good at baseball means is needed as well. Next.
Manny Machado might not seem like a guy who will be the future of the game, because he seems like the present. That’s only because he’s been in the league for six years already and is only 25. This guy has wrapped up three All-Star bids and two Gold Gloves, all playing third base. Now Manny, who at this point is beginning to seem like the Lebron of Baltimore, is moving to shortstop, his natural position all throughout the minors. There initially was concern, which given last year’s numbers dip, may have been warranted. Machado played a considerable chunk of games at short to fill in for an injured J.J. Hardy. As a result, his offense suffered due to the increased physical demand of playing short. However, reports have been pouring out of O’s camp all Spring Training that Manny is ready to rumble. That, compounded with the fact that this is the last year of his contract, and the O’s have about as much of a vision for the future as Stevie Wonder in a coal mine, seems to be a perfect recipe for a motivated Manny.
Rhys Hoskins was downright mean to pitchers and the baseballs they threw when he broke into the Bigs in early August of last year. In just 170 at-bats last season, he smacked 18 balls over the wall, earning himself an OPS of 1.014. Nobody is going to claim that Rhys is on track to hit 80 dingers in his sophomore campaign, but his impressive showing last year made him the new face of the Phillies. Which many casual fans may have forgotten, are an extremely large market team on the East Coast. Earlier in the article, Scott Kingery was mentioned. He and Hoskins, along with Aaron Nola, Carlos Santana and newly acquired Jake Arrieta, will do their very best to make the Phillies an incredibly interesting young team to watch this year and they will do so with Hoskins at the helm. The maturity and poise he showed last season amid his homerun hype is even more impressive when his age is mentioned, he only turned 25 during Spring Training.
Ronald Acuna is the second player on this list who has yet to crack the Majors, and the only player who was not on an Opening Day roster. Why then, is he on this list at all? Well, this.
Aside from Ohtani, who, really, is only considered a prospect due to his lack of any MLB games before the year began, Acuna is the top prospect in baseball. There is no question that he will be up with the Atlanta Braves at some point this season, possibly sooner than later. During Spring Training, this 20-year-old hit .432/.519/.727. For those who like math but don’t want to do addition, that’s a 1.247 OPS over the course of 52 plate appearances. Okay, sure it’s spring ball. A bigger sample size shows that in the Minors, Acuna hit .310/.378/.488 over the course of 1210 plate appearances. Bobby DeMuro of Baseball Census said about Acuna, “A legitimate five-tool player who has the potential to be a big league superstar beginning in 2018…”
The stats aren’t there quite yet to show how incredibly talented this kid is, but they will be. Not a bad idea to add to a keeper fantasy league now before the secret is out.
Bryce Harper, ever heard of him? There is little to no need to go through all the reasons why Harper is impacting the state of the game right now. The only number needed to convince anyone that this year will affect the shape of the MLB going forward is the number, one. That is how many years are left on the contract of Harper. Did last year’s free agent market stink? Historically so. Was there, or has there ever been a 25-year-old on the open market as good as Bryce Harper? Most certainly not. His body of work speaks for itself but, expect a monster season out of Bryce as the championship window in Washington begins to close, and free agency looms.
Opening Day
It is here. Though it won’t be for long. The very gusts and chills that precede it now, will issue this joy farewell one day. Those days seem far off, especially while these are so near. The evenings of warm, familiar voices beckoning sleep as the bullpen grows thin; the afternoons of the crack and cheer, riding the breeze, echoing through open windows, are not far off now.
There are narratives, as there always are; new faces, old names, foreign locations, and legacies growing stronger. They don’t need descriptions or specifics for a mental image to be conjured. We know them. We feel them. They live in our hearts.
How does this game, this cruel, twisted, brutal, merciless, impossibly difficult game captivate us with such repetitive, maddening routine? Because it’s our game. It’s the game that comes back on the wings of new life, and leaves on the groans of a dying year. The game is life. It bears new, fantastic and exciting fruit every year. It returns luster to the old forest, which it seems has always been there. It begins with a grin and a cheer long buried beneath snow. It ends with tears and reverence for what seems like a lifetime of strife for one magical, heroic moment.
The game is different for all, just like life. It can be examined by a microscope, run through statistical models, skimmed in the paper with coffee in hand, or simply enjoyed on an afternoon off, letting the sun fade that old cap.
We need not know precisely why and how this long love affair goes on, because it always will. It’s not a number or a theory. It’s how it makes us feel. It gives us the greatest joy and sorrow, often only moments apart. It sets the stage for heroes and lines the walls with legends. It crafts curses which don’t live in storybooks and can really be broken. It gives hope to those who only need a ball to feel it.
It is here. Though it won’t be for long.
Welcome back baseball, we’ll see you tomorrow.
- Jake Reagan
Fun With Numbers
Back in 2013, I had the pleasure of working as a statistical consultant with my former high school baseball coach as part of an internship for college credit. My coach was a math teacher by day, passionate about the game, and always looking for that next level of analysis that might give him an edge on the competition. Getting to intern with him was a match made in heaven.
Coach had a rather fascinating blend of old-school and new-school philosophies, that successfully came together time and time again during his tenure at my former school. During that season, he enlisted my help to devise statistical models that graded out his players based off of tracking stats most people don’t even think to observe. After putting our heads together, the brainchild that emerged was the Productive At Bat (PAB for short).
The PAB was truly a fascinating stat. The purpose of this stat was to figure out which players made the most use out of their plate appearances, regardless of the outcome, and then build the lineup in a way to maximize productivity. In order to do this, we tried to eliminate as many variables as we reasonably could that fell outside of the players’ control when they were up to bat. Players could be credited with a PAB after all kinds of outcomes, even strikeouts, provided certain conditions were met.
In order to be credited with a PAB, players had to meet at least 1 of the following conditions…
Reach base
Advance a runner
Hit a line drive
See 5+ pitches
Make the defense earn the out/hitter was robbed
Obviously, reaching base and advancing runners are the two main objectives of any offense. This essentially incorporates the concept of On Base Percentage, while including situations where “productive outs” are made.
Including the condition for line drives allows us to remove some of the elements of “bad luck”. The idea behind this was that you wanted players who were hitting the ball well getting more at bats, so we simply disregarded the outcome of the at bat if they struck the ball well (for the purpose of this stat).
After covering the basics, we started to go more in depth and try to think of ways a player could have a positive impact on the game with an at bat that didn't already meet the existing criteria that we had. Pitches seen seemed like the perfect fit. We settled on 5 as the minimum number because, if every player took at least 5 pitches per at bat, a starting pitcher with a perfect game would still hit 85 pitches before they made it through 6 innings. In high school, pitchers are restricted to no more than 85 pitches before they are required to come out. If we could average 5 pitches per at bat, we could grind down even the most elite opponents, and have a chance to win against their bullpen. No matter what happened after 5 pitches, the batter would have at least done their part to tax the opposing pitching staff.
That last condition was a really interesting one. While it would be impossible to use the stat league-wide with that condition (since it would be impossible to know if coaches were all in agreement on when the defense earned the out, or the hitter was robbed), that final condition allowed for Coach to reward his players when he felt they got cheated by the umps, or were the victims of some stellar defense.
The end result was a very simple metric that told you what percentage of at bats a player made good use of.
ODDS TO WIN THE NL CY YOUNG
11/15/2018 - 2018 NL Cy Young - Odds to Win
Clayton Kershaw3-2In Progress
Max Scherzer2-1In Progress
Noah Syndergaard12-1In Progress
Madison Bumgarner15-1In Progress
Carlos Martinez15-1In Progress
Stephen Strasburg15-1In Progress
Yu Darvish18-1In Progress
Robbie Ray20-1In Progress
Jacob DeGrom20-1In Progress
Zach Greinke25-1In Progress
Jon Lester30-1In Progress
Jose Quintana30-1In Progress
Aaron Nola40-1In Progress
Jon Gray40-1In Progress
Kyle Hendricks40-1In Progress
Gio Gonzalez40-1In Progress
Chase Anderson50-1In Progress
Johnny Cueto50-1In Progress
Michael Wacha50-1In Progress
Julio Teheran50-1In Progress
Alex Wood50-1In Progress
Rich Hill50-1In Progress
Jason Vargas60-1In Progress
Tyler Chatwood100-1In Progress
Kenley Jansen100-1In Progress
Zach Davies100-1In Progress
Taijuan Walker100-1In Progress
Kenta Maeda100-1In Progress
Matt Harvey100-1In Progress
Good Luck... Danny B
ODDS TO WIN AL CY YOUNG AWARD
11/15/2018 - 2018 AL Cy Young - Odds to Win
Chris Sale9-4In Progress
Corey Kluber5-2In Progress
Justin Verlander8-1In Progress
Carlos Carrasco8-1In Progress
Luis Severino10-1In Progress
James Paxton12-1In Progress
Dallas Keuchel15-1In Progress
Gerrit Cole18-1In Progress
Masahiro Tanaka20-1In Progress
David Price25-1In Progress
Chris Archer28-1In Progress
Cole Hamels30-1In Progress
Jose Berrios30-1In Progress
Shohei Ohtani30-1In Progress
Aaron Sanchez40-1In Progress
Garrett Richards40-1In Progress
Marcus Stroman40-1In Progress
Danny Duffy40-1In Progress
Lance McCullers60-1In Progress
Michael Fulmer60-1In Progress
Sonny Gray60-1In Progress
Felix Hernandez80-1In Progress
JA Happ80-1In Progress
Rick Porcello80-1In Progress
Ervin Santana100-1In Progress
Craig Kimbrel100-1In Progress
Trevor Bauer100-1In Progress
Drew Pomeranz100-1In Progress
The Idiot’s Guide to Baseball Projections: By Nate Rawlings
SECTION I: NEWTON’S LAW
Patterns are an inevitable, inescapable even, fact of life. If the patterns of people are carefully observed, certain outcomes can be quite accurately anticipated (and often gambled on), even before they occur.
When it comes to baseball, much of the same logic applies. Sometimes, what our “gut” is telling us about the team we follow is merely a subconscious observation of a pattern we don’t even know we caught onto. Much of what I do revolves around unearthing patterns in the game and finding (or creating) stats that illustrate what our guts haven't been able to put into words for so long.
With respect to any sort of statistical model, the K.I.S.S. method (Keep It Simple, Stupid) is always ideal. The more extraneous or unnecessary variables one introduces, the more potential points of failure there are for your model to go wrong. Nothing gets introduced unless the results of its inclusion can justify its use.
Projection models are always an interesting pursuit, since the “best” design doesn’t always yield the most correct results. Every season doesn’t always boil down to the most predictable (and statistically likely) result unfolding. The top overall seed doesn't win every March Madness Tournament, the favorite in Vegas doesn't win every Super Bowl, and the most statistically probable outcome doesn’t always unfold every baseball season. However, unlike some sports with much shorter seasons (that allow for statistically unlikely results to have a much greater impact on the season), Major League Baseball’s 162-game slate gives a large enough sample-size that the end result will have a much higher probability of falling within an expected range.
Newton's First Law states that, “An object at rest tends to remain at rest, and an object in motion tends to remain in motion, unless it is acted on by some other force.”
Generally, this law holds true, not just with objects in the vacuum of space, but across a broad array of topics in day to day life. A broke college kid will remain broke until, a gracious employer overlooks the fact that the kid doesn’t have the preferred 10 years of experience for an entry level position and hires them anyway.
In baseball, a playoff bound franchise is likely to remain playoff bound, and a losing franchise is likely to continue with its losing ways, until they are acted upon by some other force (i.e. an injury, trade, player development/decline, etc.).
So, when it comes to projecting this season’s results, the best place to start is by simply taking the results from last season. If this year were to occur in a vacuum where the results were immune to the impact of aging, unforeseen injuries, and offseason player movement, the outcome would simply be a repeat of last season. It’s as simple as saying if this year’s results equal “X”, and last year’s results equal “Y”, then X = Y.
When examining actual results in the win/loss column compared with a team’s performance, it doesn't take an original stat or mind-numbing algorithm to let the average fan know that the results aren't always an accurate reflection of a team’s overall effort. The first adjustment we can apply is to change last season’s win total to one that more accurately reflects overall performance. To win a game, a ball club must score more runs than they allow their opponent to score. A simple way to compare actual wins to expected wins is by examining a team’s run-differential.
SECTION II: EXAMPLES FROM LAST SEASON
Lets examine a real life example from last season. In the following chart, we can see the run differentials of 4 unidentified teams.
Now, If I were to tell you that one of these teams finished with a record that was nearly .500 (80-82) which one would you pick? Do you go with Team A, which has scored about as many runs as it has given up, or do you go with another team that scored significantly fewer runs than they gave up?
If you guessed Team A, you’d be correct!
However, the results do not always wind up being so cut and dry. As you are about to find out, they can get deceptively misleading.
What if I were to tell you that a second team ALSO finished with the same record as Team A, which one would you pick? Every other team on this list gave up far more runs than Team A, while scoring significantly fewer runs.
Furthermore, what if I told you the remaining two teams finished 10 games apart in the standings, in spite of near-identical run differentials?
As bizarre as this all sounds, this is exactly what happened last season for the Angels, Royals, Blue Jays, and Phillies.
Before we lose all faith in the ability of run differential to accurately reflect (and project) wins for a team, let’s not forget that the Angels and the Blue Jays have records that correlate with their run differential. As for the other two teams, the Royals and the Phillies dealt
with several mid-season variables that significantly impacted their team’s trajectories, leading to skewed results. Teams like the 2017 Royals and Phillies are why I am painstakingly going over all of this. While the superficial results make sense for half of these teams, there is a deeper layer of analysis that, when uncovered, help us to make sense of the remaining results (as well as learn what to look for to predict future outcomes moving forward).
The Royals faded down the stretch and dealt with their top starter, Dan Duffy, missing a quarter of the season (making only 24 out of 32 starts). The Royals had a similar run total to the Angels, who won 80 games, but yielded 82 more runs. This can easily be accounted for by having the best pitcher on the staff for only 75% of the season, with replacement-level pitching yielding a disproportionate number of runs relative to the total losses accrued by the team. Not to mention, the Royals also dealt with losing their star catcher just a week after the trade deadline.
The Phillies shipped out one of their top 3 starting pitchers at the August 1st trade deadline, along with one of their most statistically productive position players. The team was also dealing with two of their top 3 remaining starters being injured.
An inconsistent presence of solid contributors on offense and defense can easily skew a team’s win total from resembling the total of a different team that put up nearly identical offensive and defensive totals.
These variables can create volatility, and ocular inaccuracy in a team’s overall results. The variables lead to teams being streaky, and can drastically skew large enough sample sizes that they can even significantly alter the outcome of the entire season. While it is insultingly simplistic to assume that a team’s year-to-year production (and results) will be similar, even if significant contributors were limited due to injury or being traded, the overall volatility of production is often constant. Injuries are ever present, especially among certain players. Different teams deploy different strategies and styles in their front offices that influence volatility as well. If we can spot a pattern between teams that consistently yield superior results with inferior production, or yield inferior results with superior production, we can apply that anticipated skew in results on a team specific basis.
SECTION III: MATH
So, to recap, we have now taken our projections from simply being…
X = Y
(X is this year, Y is last year)
to
X = y
(lower case ‘y’ is the adjusted wins of last year)
to
X = y(V)
(‘V’ is a volatility coefficient that reflects a trend in skewed results for a specific team)
The formula has now taken into account team production, and ability to capitalize on that production, in making projections from one year to the next. However, two very obvious variables still remain unaddressed. The first is significant player transactions made in the offseason. The second, is time.
Addressing roster turnover is simple enough. Simply cut and paste past production of new players in and remove existing production of former players, while adjusting for any change in roles between their new and former teams. For example, if a player goes from being a starting pitcher on their former team to slotting in as a long reliever on their new one, it would be inaccurate to credit their new team with 150-200 innings of production out of a guy who is likely only going to throw between 60-100 innings in the coming season.
As for the effects of time, I will write a separate piece later that examines the many ways to account for aging in anticipating player growth or decline. For now, let’s simply acknowledge it’s impact for the purpose of this narrative.
We have now gone from…
X = y(V)
to
X = y(V) + Pn - Pf
(Pn represents new players, Pf represents former players)
to
X = y(V) + R(Pn) - Pf
(R represents the change in roles of new and existing players)
to
X = [ y(V) + R(Pn) - Pf ]^T
(T represents the impact of time on the entire projection as a whole)
My apologies to anyone who had repressed nightmares from high school algebra dredged up by the depictions of this whole process in a step-by-step formula, but there is a reason mathematicians use them. I wanted a concise way to sum up everything covered here in a way that illustrated how all these variables related to each other for the reader. Stay tuned for when I apply what we discussed here to analyze and project the upcoming season!
Baseball : The Art Of War By Nate Rawlings
The Art of W.A.R.
In this ever modernizing era of baseball, we have found ourselves inundated with a plethora of advanced metrics. These metrics, unlike the common “counting stats” that can easily be followed, are increasingly obscure and difficult for the average fan to follow. However, one centralizing statistic that has emerged to the forefront is Wins Above Replacement, WAR for short. WAR, in theory, is a statisticians dream. A singular, reliable unit of measurement that gives us common ground to compare the value offered by every different kind of player. However, multiple, self-appointed “authorities” on the stat have shoved their way to the front, and each offers a different statistic, but with the same name. As a statistically-inclined baseball fan, I was both intrigued by the concept of WAR as it has emerged over this past decade, as well as abhorred by how much the stat itself seemed to lack direction. It already is a disservice to the game to have multiple “authorities” pushing their own interpretation of “WAR” out there to the consumers. Adding insult to injury is the fact that the average fan doesn't have the slightest clue of where to begin with learning to comprehend how a box score line for a player translates into the accruement of that given player’s WAR. Player A goes 1-4 with a homer and Player B goes 4-4 with 4 singles. Player A is a designated hitter with no defensive value, but player B made an error in an underwhelming performance on defense. Who had the better game? Who accrued the most WAR? Fans are trying to embrace the ever-modernizing statistics of today’s game, but there’s been somewhat of a disconnect for them when it comes to WAR, since they are just told to blindly accept some algorithm that spits out a value of 5 for Player A and 4 for Player B, so Player A must be worth 1 more win than Player B, even though there’s no explanation of how that value came to be arrived at. This is where I’d like to introduce my personal “one size fits all” stat for measuring the production of players, Net Bases.
I began working on trying to develop my own universal metric for evaluating baseball players back in 2009 when I was a freshman in college. I was working as a statistical consultant with my school’s baseball team, and I initially was curious at trying to determine WAR values for the many players on our team. I consulted the internet, and immediately was met with a bunch of noise about what the definition was, but no quantitative interpretations of how those numbers were arrived at. As soon as I realized there were multiple different “authorities” who peddled their interpretation of the stat, I closed my browser window and decided to create one myself. I did not wish to pry any further and risk tainting my personal bias when approaching this problem. I wanted my solution to be uniquely my own, untainted by what I would find if I dug deeper. However, I quickly found myself grappling with the most basic, fundamental concept there was with respect to this subject. What the hell is a win, exactly, and how do I quantify it?
Realizing that this was a problem to be saved for later (seven years later, as it would turn out) I opted to break it down into a more simple concept instead. While I could not fully quantify what a win was, I definitely knew how a win was achieved. Runs. As long as Team X has a greater number of runs than Team Y at the end of the game, Team X will win. Ok, so I was going with runs, that was easy enough. How do I determine how many runs its worth when a center fielder does his job catching a routine fly ball? Or when a leadoff hitter singles, steals, but gets stranded? Or two different players go 0/4 in a game, but one struck out all 4 times, while the other managed to put the ball in play and forced the defense to do it’s job to keep him off the bases. I was quickly falling down the same rabbit hole, until the obvious became apparent to me. Bases. It takes 4 bases to score a run, and it is a lot easier for both myself, as well as the typical fan who isn't a total stat nerd, to follow along with bases over runs. That leadoff hitter who singled and stole second accrued 2 total bases. Thats worth half a run, even though he didn't score. While saying thats worth half a run leaves some fans scratching their heads, virtually everyone who can achieve being conscious with a pulse can understand that two bases were achieved, since the leadoff hitter made it to second. While Net Bases as a whole is nowhere near as simplistic as that explanation is, it boils down every play of influence a given player has on the game into how that player’s performance influenced his team’s ability to generate total bases, and prevent their opponent from doing the same. While the world may not agree with it, this approach, in my opinion, seemed far more practical. Wins can vary, teams can win games they do not deserve to win, and lose games where they gave forth a far more winning effort. Wins are fickle. Runs are Runs, and there are 4 bases in every run.
Nate Rawlings