The Mets Are for Real, and They’re Going to Stay that Way (By: Jake Reagan)
Time to play “Two Truths and a Lie;” the New York Mets are on fire right now, the Mets will continue to be one of the best teams in the league, the Mets will regress and this sample size is too small. Clearly, how hot the Mets are right now is no lie. They are 11-2 heading into Sunday and have won a whopping nine straight ball games. The preseason chatter surrounding the Mets since their 2015 World Series run has consistently been centered around the elite rotation in Queens. The season that sparked that narrative saw Noah Syndergaard’s rookie campaign, year two of the Dark Knight’s dominance, and an All-Star performance by 2014 Rookie of the Year, Jacob DeGrom. The conversation about that pitching staff has not just been how dominant they are, even with Harvey’s struggles, but how massively important pitching health is to the team’s success. This prediction manifested itself in the results of the 2017 season. New York finished with a very disappointing 70-92 record, behind the still-rebuilding Braves. The Mets DL saw 9 different pitchers by late July. Harvey, Syndergaard, closer Juerys Familia, Steven Matz and Robert Gsellman all appeared on that list. Jacob DeGrom was the only pitcher on the entire staff to go over 200 innings, finishing with 201.1, which was 82.2 innings more than the second-most innings thrown.
The Mets didn’t make any changes to their core pitching talent this offseason, and their only “big” on-field additions were bringing back RF Jay Bruce, and picking up veteran 1B Adrian Gonzalez who had been released by the Atlanta Braves via the Dodgers. The team also added right-handed hurler Anthony Swarzak, who has already found himself on the DL with an oblique strain. The biggest addition, it could turn out, is new manager Mickey Callaway. Callaway was a below-average ball player, but established himself as an elite pitching mind by working as the pitching coach for the Cleveland Indians. So far this season, Callaway has repeatedly shuffled the deck both in the bullpen, and in the lineup. On Sunday, the Mets had only five positions players qualified for the batting title; 16 positions players have seen at-bats so far this season. Astonishingly, 14 Mets have also appeared on the mound thus far. The work has been distributed very evenly for the Mets pitching. The starters have accounted for 70 innings, the bullpen 50; that means, of the 120 innings thrown by Mets pitchers, about 58% has been thrown by starters, 5% less than in 2017. Starters are averaging only 5.1 innings per start, hardly even enough to qualify for a win.
After reading all of this, the question is, “so what?” Bullpenning, as it’s come to be known, is commonplace in the MLB now, what’s so special about the Mets? The special part about what the Mets are doing, is when they are doing it, and how well. Bullpenning really shines and receives the most credit for success in the Postseason. In Game 2 of the 2017 World Series, the Astros used five pitchers and the Dodgers used an astonishing nine different guys to finish the game. The Mets, however, are bullpenning from the beginning, and they’re doing it correctly. Not only is this strategy good in the context of a game, but it will keep pitchers healthier in the long run. Callaway has been putting relievers in situations where they are set to succeed. The team has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, both are second in the majors as of Sunday. Seven out of the nine arms in the bullpen have ERAs of 3.00 or lower, five of those pitchers have WHIPs under 1.00.
The Mets are running nine-deep in the pen, and are not afraid to use all the pitchers out there. The innings have been very evenly distributed, keeping stress off the bullpen as well as the starters. The hyper-effectivity of the bullpen has defeated the strategy of wearing down the elite starters that the Mets have, forcing opposing hitters to deal with Syndergaard and DeGrom more often. The entire staff has become the strength of the team, not just the starting rotation.
Because of this newfound strength, the Mets can lean heavily on their pitching, which is good, considering the team’s offensive production. The pitching of this squad is reminiscent of the lockdown bullpen, and tremendous starting performances of 2015. Unfortunately, the offense is very much like the 2015 team, as well. In late July of ‘15, the Mets offense was worse than the 1962 Mets, a team that lost a staggering 120 games. The ’15 Mets averaged just 3.43 runs a game at that point, the ’62 Mets were just above them with 3.86 RPG. However, the good news for the ’18 Mets, is that heading into Sunday, they are scoring 4.77 RPG, good for 12th in the majors. The offense of the Mets is still top heavy, Asdrubel Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes have more hits than the rest of the team combined, but the team is at least not as abysmal as the ’15 offense.
The Mets remaining as one of the best teams in baseball, seems to be the second truth. This team is hitting at a better clip than a team that went to the World Series, the same starters line up in the rotation, the bullpen is shortening games and most importantly, the team is being managed into spots where players are best aligned to succeed, and stay healthy. Not only are the Mets better than expected, the Mets could win the division… or the World Series.