Patriots at Bills: Will they reach the over?

By: Dan Orlando

On the back-half of 2019, cars still can’t fly and teleportation isn’t a reality. But you’re actually checking a sports blog to see if the Patriots will struggle with a 7.5 spread against the Bills. 

So change is certainly upon us. 

Despite the hype surrounding this game, the Patriots should cover. I don’t see Tom Brady sweating out a one possession lead in the final minutes of any divisional game this year. 

In reality, the more interesting bet- and perhaps the more telling one for a Buffalo team looking to move up in weight class- is the 43.5 over/under. 

The Patriots are averaging 5.7 points allowed per game and have only surrendered 110 rushing yards through three weeks.

Buffalo is no lay down. They’re entering the final lap of the first quarter with the 5th ranked defense. 

But who have they played?

After being the only team to face what was thought to be a high ceiling Jets offense in Week 1 before health issues tore that unit to shreds, undefeated Buffalo beat a floundering Eli Manning-led attack in the QBs final stand and an 0-3 Cincinnati squad at home.

The Bengals are only averaging 18- points per game. 

Today’s game in Western New York may not lead to a Bills upset victory, but if the home team can corral the Patriots and their 35.3 points per game average, Buffalo is for real. 

Bottom Line

The Bills are averaging 22 points per game against three of the NFL’s weakest defenses. That number will drop against the Patriots. 

Buffalo’s defense is in for a gut-check afternoon against the Pats but they’re still a unit on the rise. They’ll keep Brady & friends under their average and stop the bleeding at 31 or lower.

It will take a fluke play or two, like last week’s events against the Jets to push this game into 44-point territory. There will likely be less opportunity for that, given that the up-and-coming Bills are a more formidable opponent, and the Patriots may keep their starters in later.

Note: All articles by Dan Orlando on this site are analysis. They are not guaranteed outcomes of games.