Chargers vs Dolphins: Is 44.5 too high?

The Chargers are in Miami to take on Tua Tagovailoa’s future team in a matchup that pits the current tanker against an offense attempting to get Phillip Rivers one more shot at glory.

Always the bridesmaid and never the bride, Rivers has been unable to break through the Brady barrier, and has yet to lead his Chargers past the AFC title game.

Hopes were high that the 16-year vet could manage that this year, especially with the Colts losing Luck unexpectedly. But here they sit in Week 4, 1-2 and nursing multiple offensive injuries as the hapless Dolphins await them.

Even with Melvin Gordon back and expected to take limited snaps, will the Chargers have enough incentive to push this game past 44 points?

LA will need to do it themselves

Miami’s best offensive performance so far this season is 10 points. They put up 0 against New England.

Their cellar-dweller defense will likely put them behind early, meaning LA can ease up on the gas in the second half.

Will the Chargers put up 34 points if they don’t have to?

Bottom Line:

The view of this over/under weighs heavily on if the Dolphins can upgrade to a 17-point performance, which takes some of the pressure off of the Chargers. Even then, this is a close call.

LA had a good showing against Indianapolis, notching 30. But the Chargers needed overtime to do it.

I’ll project them to 24 against this woeful Dolphin defense, because they will likely be in control of this one before the fourth quarter and can trade scores for clock drainage.

Add in an extra field goal somewhere along the line and you’re still landing at 44. That’s with Miami exceeding expectations.

This line looks sound.

Note: All articles by Dan Orlando on this site are analysis. They are not guaranteed outcomes of games.